DDR4 Outpaces DDR5 in Growth Rate, DDR3 Also Gains Momentum
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, in their new report, warn of an unprecedented imbalance in the dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) market. Prices in the spot segment have sharply diverged from long-term contract prices, creating a "scissors" effect: the cost of DDR4 is already 172% higher than contract prices, while DDR5 is 76% higher. Memory from the previous generation, DDR3, is also showing growth.
According to experts, this situation is unsustainable in the long term, and the only solution will be a sharp increase in contract prices to catch up with spot prices. The main reason for the imbalance is that the spot market has long reflected an acute memory shortage, while contract prices have lagged. This deprives customers of the ability to negotiate, and the market urgently needs correction.
Data from suppliers also points to widespread price increases. For example, the revenue of Taiwanese company Nanya Technology grew by 445% year-on-year in December, largely driven by the surge in DDR4 prices. Memory exports from South Korea increased by 72% over the same period, confirming that price pressure is global in nature.
Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic forecast for the shares of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, noting that customers are already prepared to accept higher prices in the first quarter of 2026. This opens up room for further upward revisions to profit forecasts for memory chip manufacturers.